Tag:Spring Training
Posted on: March 31, 2010 4:01 pm

John Dewan Stat of the Week

Reposting the John Dewan Stat of the Week by permission:

Which players are poised for a breakout based on their Spring Training statistics?
March 31, 2010

This is our sixth annual list of possible breakout players based on Spring Training statistics. We researched the value of Spring Training stats a few years back and it was quite revealing. For the most part, we agree with the common perception that they don't have value. A bad spring training means nothing. An average spring training tells us nothing. Nevertheless, we did find that when a player has an exceptional spring, it does suggest a better than 60% chance they will take their game up a notch. It applies to teams as well.

We define "exceptional spring" as a positive difference between a hitter's spring training slugging percentage and their lifetime slugging percentage of 200 points or more.

We analyzed hitters with both a minimum of 200 career regular season at bats and with a minimum of 40 spring training at bats (through spring training games of Tuesday, March 30) and found the following 18 players.

Possible Breakout Players
Slugging Percentage 200+ points better in Spring Training
Hitter, Team  Difference  Spring  Career
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays  .484  .884  .400
Mitch Maier, Royals  .436  .760  .324
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals  .345  .824  .478
Colby Rasmus, Cardinals  .316  .723  .407
Jerry Hairston, Padres  .302  .675  .373
Delwyn Young, Pirates  .288  .673  .385
Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks  .283  .714  .431
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies  .282  .756  .474
Hunter Pence, Astros  .272  .760  .488
Gregg Zaun, Brewers  .262  .650  .388
Aaron Rowand, Giants  .260  .708  .448
Nelson Cruz, Rangers  .259  .732  .473
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks  .254  .739  .485
Will Venable, Padres  .252  .679  .427
Alberto Callaspo, Royals  .242  .646  .404
John Bowker, Giants  .229  .631  .402
Mike Aviles, Royals  .223  .651  .429
Mark Kotsay, White Sox  .204  .617  .413
Copyright © 2010 by John Dewan.
Permission to reprint or broadcast this information is granted only if used in conjunction with the following citation: "Used with permission from John Dewan's Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com."

Posted on: March 30, 2009 5:58 pm

Emack's 2009 MLB predictions

AL East
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles

AL Central
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals

AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners

Wild Card: New York Yankees
League champ: Boston Red Sox
MVP: Grady Sizemore, Indians
Cy Young: Josh Beckett, Red Sox
Manager: Eric Wedge, Indians
Comeback player: Victor Martinez, Indians
HR champ: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Surprise: Howie Kendrick, Angels
Disappointment: Travis Hafner, Indians

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals

NL Central
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
Wild Card: New York Mets
League champ: Chicago Cubs
MVP: Jose Reyes, Mets
Cy Young: Johan Santana, Mets
Manager: Dusty Baker, Reds
Comeback player: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
HR champ: Ryan Howard, Phillies
Surprise: Daniel Murphy, Mets
Disappointment: Chipper Jones, Braves

World champ: Chicago Cubs


Category: MLB
Posted on: March 19, 2009 12:44 pm

All we are is Dustin the wind

In CBSSports.com.s AL-only Head-to-Head league (10 teams, standard scoring and rosters), I had to drop Nick Adenhart for Dustin Moseley. Moseley shouldn't have been available because he is assured of a rotation spot in one of the best rotations/contenders in baseball. Moseley is not the long-term talent the 22-year-old Adenhart is, but he is assured of a rotation spot and pitching much better this spring.

Don't lose sight of Adenhart, though. I still think he has some surprises in his right arm -- much like I still do with Homer Bailey, who has been solid this spring.


Posted on: March 17, 2009 2:31 pm

The Price Isn't Right

While a couple of Dodgers will be on the Price is Right on Wednesday, David Price is looking more and more likely to open the year back in Triple-A.

That means all those people drafting him in the 10-12th rounds are overpaying steeply for his services.

I just picked up Jeff Niemann in the AL-only Head-to-Head Analysts league on CBSSports.com. He is a decent young starter out of options and a solid sleeper now, since he figures to win Price's rotation spot.

"We want to see more command of his fastball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said of Price.

Ew... I guess we will have another Price Watch the first few months of the 2009 season, too.


Posted on: March 17, 2009 1:22 pm
Edited on: March 17, 2009 1:23 pm

Tigers closer of the future...

I no longer am on the Joel Zumaya bandwagon. He is a potential injury-risk sleeper as a middle reliever, but this spring has taught me Ryan Perry is the Tigers' closer of the future. You gotta love the next 100 mph arm. This one is more healthy right now. I like Perry so much, I am dumping FA flier Pedro Martinez in our very deeper AL-only Analysts league with a bid on Perry.

Again, I hope my leaguemates don't scoop me on this, but I was so excited by Perry's potential to close this season, I thought I would tell the world even before I officially get him in a claim myself.

As for my giving up on Martinez, it looks like he will sign with the Dodgers or Mets at this point. And all the teams rumored to be interested are from the NL. Pedro is a safe dump in AL-only formats right now.



Posted on: March 13, 2009 12:59 pm
Edited on: March 13, 2009 3:57 pm

Cardinals-Orioles, March 13

FORT LAUDERDALE -- Albert Pujols is in the lineup today. He has a future in this game. Adam Eaton is making his Orioles debut. They need him to eat innings to save their precious young arms. He fits the bill, but won't have much Fantasy value.

-- Skip Schumaker is playing second base and leading off. Khalil Greene is playing shortstop. David Freese is on loan from minor league camp as the DH. He had already been sent out and ruled out of the mix to start at third. Colby Rasmus is hitting ninth and playing center. Catcher prospect Bryan D. Anderson is in the lineup, too.

-- Schumaker singled to center. Joe Thurston singled to right. Pujols RBI double. Frozen rope to left. Pujols never ceases to amaze.

-- Orioles have all but Nick Markakis, Melvin Mora and Cesar Izturis in their lineup. Matt Wieters is catching and Gregg Zaun is DHing. Wieters is hitting .409 but still hasn't done enough to win a job yet. I am still hopeful he can. Wieters threw a ball into center on a John Jay steal attempt. There was no advance, but Wieters missed by a wide margin.

-- Adam Jones, who told us early this spring he has designs on 30-40 steals (Why not? he says), stole second in the first inning. It wasn't close. He is 6-for-6 in steal attempts and now leads all of baseball in spring training. Beat writer says, "Spring training, pal." I responded: "Hey, you have to show it now to do it then. You practice how you play." I am upgrading Jones' projected steals from 12 to 20. I won't be surprised to see myself to upgrade it to 25 sooner than later.

-- SS Greene came up against left-hander Jamie Walker in the fourth with a runner on. Emack says to beat writer: "I am going to predict a homer to left here." Crack! Emack: "I am a Xod-XXmned genius, Gump." Beat writer: "Good call."

Greene has serious power potential for a shortstop and I wouldn't mind him being my Fantasy shortstop in any league this season. Wait on the position and take Greene. La Russa has a way of getting the best out of his guys. Ryan Ludwick, anyone? Greene is his next project. So far, so brilliant.

-- Chris Perez pitched the ninth, but he certainly didn't impress in his bid to close. He served up a walk, RBI double and RBI single, nearly blowing a three-run lead. He clearly has work to do. Those O's bats of Adam Donachie, Justin Turner and Lou Montanez were not really much of a challenge.

-- I am picking up John Mayberry in the NL-only analysts league tonight. He has proving to be a diamond in the rough. That is a great ballpark for him to get his feet wet as a reserve. The son of the former Royal, Mayberry can earn at-bats and with someone like Werth starting there -- and never having been a full-season regular before -- Mayberry could get more at-bats than you might think. Hopefully no one in my league reads this message. If they do and pick him up, I will laugh uncontrollably at them for not being independent thinkers. I never read their stories. :-) Seriously, I would take it as a compliment if they scoop him up on me.



Posted on: March 11, 2009 1:24 pm
Edited on: March 13, 2009 10:40 am

Orioles-Twins on Wednesday, March 11

FORT LAUDERDALE -- I miss the Twins near no-hitter Sunday with Francisco Liriano and finally make it back to a ballgame. It's David Pauley vs. Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn and Joe Nathan.

-- Denard Span can really, really run. He isn't Carlos Gomez fast, but who is?

-- Joe Crede and his chronic bad back sat on a bus for the two-plus hour drive from Fort Myers. That is a great sign for his health. Blackburn and Cuddyer also made the trip coming off injuries.

-- Adam Jones made a sweet lunging grab in the first to turn a double play. He really might win a Gold Glove this season. Maybe he will even live up to his 30-40 steals prediction. You can't put anything past someone with that talent -- although I still have a hunch his numbers are going to be a few years away.

-- Pauley looks like a Triple-A starter. He won't win a rotation spot. He get abused in the first inning. Alexi Casilla and Cuddyer gapped him.

-- Carlos Gomez, batting ninth with Span leading off, is a strong, strong man. We know about the speed, but Gomez is going to be a big-time hitter in the near future. He lined a double to the warning track in left-center, the ball hardly getting off the ground and splitting the air all the way to the fence. He only got a double. If you understand his speed, you know it takes a shot in the gap for him to only pull up for a double. He hit it too hard almost.

Gomez walked in his next at-bats -- great news. He was caught stealing 1-3-6 on a pick-off attempt -- not great news. He did almost outrun the throw from first to second, though.

-- Crede ripped a single down the left field line. He really doesn't run well at all. It might be a function of his back -- of just the fact that he is Dave Magadan out of the box.

-- Nathan blew Wieters away quickly with one out and a man on third. You gotta put the ball in play there. Granted, that is an elite closer, but it is a sign Wieters might not be ready to go out of spring training. I am becoming convinced he could use time in Triple-A myself... and I generally complain when teams block their elite prospects.



Posted on: March 9, 2009 2:56 pm
Edited on: March 9, 2009 3:47 pm

Video notes for the position season previews

We will be taping video position-by-position Fantasy Baseball previews in the coming days. We will go over the rankings and general thoughts at the positions one-by-one, along with some picks to outline as sleepers, busts and prospects.


Sleepers -- Victor Martinez, Jorge Posada, Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Busts -- Bengie Molina, Matt Wieters, Brandon Inge

Prospects -- Matt Wieters, Taylor Teagarden, J.P. Arencibia

First baseman:

Sleepers -- Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Chris Davis

Busts -- Aubrey Huff, Carlos Delgado, Derrek Lee

Prospects -- Gaby Sanchez, Lars Anderson, Chris C. Carter (OAK)

Second basemen:

Sleepers -- Alexei Ramirez, Kelly Johnson, Howie Kendrick

Busts -- Brandon Phillips, Freddy Sanchez, Mike Aviles

Prospects -- Gordon Beckham, Chris Getz, Matt Antonelli


Sleepers -- Troy Tulowitzki, Khalil Greene, Brandon Wood

Busts -- Derek Jeter, Rafael Furcal, Elvis Andrus

Prospects -- Elvis Andrus, Alcides Escobar, Chris Valaika/Todd Frazier

Third basemen:

Sleepers -- Mark Reynolds, Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Gordon

Busts -- Chipper Jones, Aubrey Huff, Chone Figgins

Prospects -- Dayan Viciedo, Mat Gamel, Pedro Alvarez


Sleepers -- Matt Kemp, Adam Jones, Jeff Francoeur

Busts -- Matt Holliday, Ichiro Suzuki, Bobby Abreu,

Prospects -- Cameron Maybin, Travis Snider, Colby Rasmus, Matt LaPorta


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com